Will Forecasts of The CMT to 2012 Lose Movistar and Orange in Favour of Vodafone and Yoigo?

According to CMT, the answer is Yes and it is that the controller has been forced to do a study on the evolution of the market shares of the phone operators until 2012 to be able to set mobile termination rates in line with the market.

The termination rates they are the ones that are charged between operators by end on your network calls from customers of rivals and is currently at 7 cents per minute (except Telstra charged 10 cents per minute for being a new operator that has yet to deal with large-scale investment in infrastructure) but is expected one reduced to 4 cents without distinction for four operators with own network as recommended by the European Community in the next three years.

The study indicates that the trade war which has been unleashed in the sector will do in 2012 Movistar has lost about 2 points and a half While Orange It would 1 point and a half staying below the 20% market share.

Movistar loss would be more reasonable since it is the operator with more customers and therefore more likely to lose users but what is most striking is that Orange, the smallest of the large, also on behalf of Vodafone timidly increasing more than half a point to move with a 32% of the market.

And how it could be otherwise, the CMT provides the best evolutions for new operators since they are more likely to have capture customers. Like this Telstra would reach 4.5% of the market and possibly would not reach the forecast of 10% 2015 which made TeliaSonera while the OMVs would grow slightly to 2%.

Interestingly, while the reduction in termination prices does enough damage in the accounts of operators, Orange has called for a drastic reduction (up to 3.5 cents) that would allow him to compete on equal terms with Movistar and Vodafone put that to a larger number of subscribers, they have also increase the odds of receiving calls with their subsequent benefit.

This study is only a probability of how the market will evolve until 2012 but do you think that current business strategy will get the backing of customers as indicated by the CMT? What should be changed so that they change those data?